Threat Model
Highveld Fallout Assessment
Johannesburg — 26.2°S, 28.0°E, 1,753m ASL
v2.0 — refined physics
Scenario Parameters
Detonation Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Detonation Region
Iran / Tehran (~32°N)
Iran / Isfahan (~33°N)
Israel (~31.5°N)
Persian Gulf (~26°N)
Strait of Hormuz (~27°N)
Weapon Yield (per warhead)
5 kt (tactical)
15 kt (Hiroshima-class)
50 kt (low strategic)
100 kt (strategic)
250 kt (Jericho III est.)
500 kt (high strategic)
1 Mt (thermonuclear)
Number of Weapons
Weapon Design
Pure fission
Boosted fission
Thermonuclear
Burst Type
Airburst
Ground burst
Target Type
Urban / city
Military / leadership
Nuclear facility
Remote / open terrain
QBO
Phase
Westerly (enhanced)
Easterly (suppressed)
Neutral
Urban Targets
Run Assessment
ITCZ
Position —
February
30°S
20°S
10°S
EQ
10°N
20°N
30°N
▮
ITCZ
|
JHB
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Source
Relative Monthly Risk
Live Sources & Monitoring
Radiation Monitoring
Necsa — Pelindaba
SA Nuclear Energy Corp. Hosts CTBTO RL14 radionuclide lab.
NNR — Nuclear Regulator
National Nuclear Regulator. Environmental monitoring & enforcement.
CTBTO — IMS Station Map
Global radionuclide, seismic & infrasound monitoring network.
CTBTO — Station Profiles
Individual station data. SA hosts seismic, infrasound & radionuclide.
DMRE — Nuclear Safety
Dept. of Mineral Resources & Energy oversight.
Weather & Storms
SAWS — Main Portal
SA Weather Service. Forecasts, warnings & alerts.
SAWS — Live Radar Tracker
Real-time precipitation radar for SA. Key for tracking deposition events.
SAWS — Lightning Map
Live lightning detection. 24-sensor SALDN network.
AfriWX — Storm & Radar Maps
Independent. Satellite, radar, lightning, cloud-top-height composites.
Meteoblue — Gauteng Radar
5-min updates. Precipitation nowcast overlay for Highveld.
Atmospheric Data
SAWS — Dobson Ozone (Irene)
Ozone spectrophotometer at Irene. Tracks stratospheric column.
AfriWX — Satellite & GFS
EUMETSAT/MSG imagery, GFS model maps, ENSO updates for SA.
During a fallout scenario, the SAWS radar tracker is your best real-time tool — every Highveld thunderstorm cell is a potential deposition event.
Awaiting scenario
Configure parameters and run assessment.